We’re less than four weeks away from the midterm elections, which is usually a cause for celebration for the minority party, but is that much-hyped Blue Wave coming? In the end, it all comes down to voter turnout which is driven by voter enthusiasm.
Democrats once held a decisive advantage over the GOP in enthusiasm, but the Democrats’ handling of the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh has fired up the Right and that once sizable enthusiasm gap vanished overnight.
But will Republicans’ renewed interest in the elections carry through to November? President Trump is certainly doing his part to make sure that’s the case. While crowd size is certainly not a sure sign of voter turnout, many analysts too quickly dismissed Trump’s massive rallies in 2016, which turned out to be a stronger indicator of voter enthusiasm than many wanted to accept at the time.
So how are Trump’s 2018 get-out-the-vote rallies going? They look very familiar. They are sold-out everywhere, with people waiting in lines for hours to get in and willing to hang around outside for the rally even if they don’t. Here’s video posted by Trump of the overflow crowd at his rally in Erie, Pennsylvania on Wednesday:
Massive overflow crowd tonight in Erie, Pennsylvania. THANK YOU to everyone who came out and joined us. Together, we are MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/FkPNNVpccX
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2018
As The Daily Wire reported last week, multiple polls have shown a significant spike in Republican enthusiasm amid the Kavanaugh circus, wiping out the Democrats’ once dramatic advantage:
Multiple polls have found similar results regarding voter enthusiasm amid the Kavanaugh battle that should have Democrats very worried. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll published Wednesday found that the significant enthusiasm advantage the Democrats once enjoyed just three months ago has evaporated. “In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were ‘very important,'” NPR reports. “Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.”
In July, 78% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans said the election was “very important.” Now, 82% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans say it is very important. Independents’ enthusiasm has remained largely unchanged: 64% in July, 65% in October.