In yet another misfire at the most steadily misfiring of networks, MSNBC accidentally aired the results of Florida’s gubernatorial a race, as Deadline put it, “a wee bit too early” — the night before the election.
The big winner: You guessed it, the Democrat on the ticket, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who managed to secure a victory. With 99% of the vote tallied, MSNBC imagined that Gillum had secured 49.4% of the vote over Republican Ron DeSantis’s 48.8%.
— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) November 6, 2018
The gaff left a humiliated “All In” host Chris Hayes offering his audience a “quick clarification.”
“Just want to say,” he said, “earlier this hour, we showed a graphic of the Florida gubernatorial race. May have caught your eye because our system had inadvertently populated some test numbers. Obviously, we do not yet have any vote totals here, the night before the election. That was a misfire. Don’t worry. I was pretty confused when I saw it up there, to see it myself.”
In other words, not “Fake News,” just “Incompetent News.”
While it’s no surprise that in MSNBC’s hypothetical world the Democrat wins every time, polls for Florida’s gubernatorial race have been trending in Gillum’s direction. Recent surveys for the Florida race, which is one of Real Clear Politics’ 12 “toss-up” gubernatorial races, have all given Gillum the edge. Gravis gives Gillum a 1-point advantage, NBC News/Marist shows him up by 4, Quinnipiac by 7, HarrisX by 4, Emerson by 5, and St. Pete Polls by 5.
The other big race in the state is the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott. The polls have also been leaning toward Nelson, though one recent HarrisX poll gives Scott a 2-point advantage. Gravis shows Nelson ahead by 3, NBC News/Marist by 4, Quinnipiac by 7, Emerson by 5, and St. Pete Polls by 4.
As the Daily Wire reports, heading into the election, polls shows that Democrats have a decided edge in their bid to take control of the House, while Republicans have the advantage in the Senate:
For the last few weeks, Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls has given Republicans 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in two of the seven “tossup” races (Missouri and Nevada). On election morning, however, RCP only gives Republicans 49 “safe” seats, having shifted Tennessee into the “toss-ups” column (the Republican leads by 5 points). Last week, RCP gave Democrats 44 “safe” seats; that number has dwindled by one (West Virginia) to just 43.
According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans now have a 4 in 5 chance (81%; down by over 4% in just the last few days) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 5 chance (19%) of taking over.
The gubernatorial races are more balanced, with RCP giving Republicans 20 “safe” seats to Democrats’ 18. Most of the remaining 12 toss-up seats are razor-thin.