If Wisconsin is any indication, President Trump is in good shape looking forward to 2020. A Marquette University Law School Poll taken between November 13-17 shows Trump dominating the Democratic field. The poll commented, “Even as hearings that could lead to President Donald Trump’s impeachment heat up, a new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds consistent, if sometimes modest, shifts in public opinion away from support of impeachment and toward supporting Trump in next year’s presidential election.”
Trump is leading former Vice-President Joe Biden, 47%-44%; leading Senator Bernie Sanders 48%-45%; leading Senator Elizabeth Warren 48%-43%; leading South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, 47%-39%, and leading Senator Amy Klobuchar 25%-18%.
To make matters worse for the Democrats’ leading candidates, they’re unpopular with voters in Wisconsin. The favorable/unfavorable percentages for them read Biden, 39%-48%; Warren, 29%-46%; Sanders, 36%-54; Buttigieg, 23%-25%, and Klobuchar, 16%-21%.
National Review noted:
Last month, the same poll had Biden six points ahead of Trump, Sanders ahead by two points, and Warren ahead by one point. Trump led Buttigieg by two points in October. The shifts appeared to be affected by public impeachment hearings. Impeachment support among Democrats fell by seven points from October to 81 percent, while opposition to impeachment among Republicans rose two points to 94 percent during the same time period.
Asked whether Trump should be impeached and removed from office, a solid majority said no, with 53% saying he should not and 40% saying he should. Regarding their financial situation, 66% of respondents said they were living comfortably.
The general parity between Republican and Democrat voters was noted by the poll, which wrote:
Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.
The Democrats have selected Milwaukee, Wisconsin for their 2020 convention.The 2020 DNC convention will be the first one held in a mid-western state since the Democratic National Convention in 1968. As The Daily Wire noted, “In 2016, then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton famously failed to visit Wisconsin in the final weeks of her campaign, after inaccurate internal polling told Team Clinton that Wisconsin — a notorious swing state — was well in the ‘Democrat’ column. The oversight likely cost Clinton the White House.”
Last June, a Firehouse-Optimus poll found Trump surging in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Noting that the Trump “base” was far larger than the Democratic “base,” the poll noted, “This is a recurring trend across states — those who say they will vote for Trump are very consistent across ballot tests, while many Democratic-leaning voters fluctuate between supporting the Democrat, a generic third-party candidate, or not being sure.”
Between March and June, Biden’s lead over Trump in Wisconsin shrank from 12 percentage points to six. The Trump “base” in Wisconsin, according to the poll, rested at 37%; the Democratic “base” stood at 32%.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton never visited Wisconsin during the general election campaign; Trump visited six times. Polls prior to the election showed Clinton leading by a margin of five to eight points.